In order to win a presidential election, a candidate must have many factors balancing in their favour. As we shall discuss, a party must keep a coalition of voters willing to back the party on a number of matters which is a challenging task for any contender.
Economy
The economic status of the United States is constantly an issue in elections, serving as an Achilles heel for incumbent presidents.
One of the most illustrative examples was in 1932 when Franklin D. Roosevelt defeated Herbert Hoover amidst the Great Depression. At a time when one in every four workers was unemployed according to the Library of Congress and wage income fell by a similar percentage, Roosevelt’s New Deal policies of federal intervention led voters to flock towards the Democrats. FDR picked 42 states and 472 Electoral College Votes – it was a remarkable turnaround for the Democrats who previously won just eight states and 87 ECVs four years before.
Another notable example was 1992. Although George H.W. had attained the then-highest ever presidential approval rating throughout his tenure, by 1992 an economic double-whammy helped ensure his downfall. Not only had he introduced more taxes despite a famous pledge not to do so but an early ‘90s recession also harmed his re-election chances. Narrowly surviving primary challenges, the economic situation was a focus of the election, with the Clinton campaign famously running with the directive: “It’s the economy, stupid.”
Contrastingly, the economic boom by the mid-1990s meant Clinton was able to cruise to re-election in 1996 even in spite of unpopularity during his term. His win made him the first Democrat re-elected since FDR.
In the 21st century, Obama used the Great Recession as a feature of his campaign in 2008, sharing a number of economic gaffes made by his opponent John McCain. In the race, exit polling showed the economy was the top issue in the election amongst 62% of voters.
Foreign Policy
As the Commander-in-Chief of the United States, the President is responsible for overseeing foreign relations, which can have a highly important impact on whether the president will stay in power.
A key example was the 1964 election. In the build-up, President Lyndon B. Johnson created the iconic “Daisy” advert. Seen by as many as 100 million viewers, the commercial was created to depict the horrific potential of nuclear warfare under opponent Barry Goldwater, whose hawkish foreign policy antagonism had put the fear in the electorate.
By 1968, Johnson himself faced unpopularity over the Vietnam War with only 32% approving of his handling of the conflict. The public’s poor viewing of Johnson helped Richard Nixon sweep to power in 1968, beating off competition from Johnson’s Vice-President Hubert Humphrey to become president after Johnson stepped down.
2004’s election focussed on the issue of the War on Terror, as George Bush Jr. emerged victorious. With foreign relations being the most vital issue of the campaign, Bush’s win reflected a level of support for his invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan after September 11th. Indeed, post-9/11, Bush’s 91% approval rating was the highest any president has ever recorded. His campaign too successfully framed Democratic opponent John Kerry as a flip-flopper, including over the Iraq War which he voted for but then criticised.
Joe Biden’s handling of the Israel-Gaza conflict has already hampered his primary performances and may continue to play a role in the 2024 campaign. At the same time, challenger Donald Trump’s comments on Ukraine, Putin, and NATO have drawn international condemnation and criticism from fellow Republicans.
Social Issues
Sometimes the bigger issues are not on foreign soil but on home turf, with domestic social issues being of vital importance.
In the 2024, many Republican supporters have cited the crisis at the southern border as one of the most important factors, blaming President Biden for a surge of immigrants into the United States. This could also still backfire on Trump, who was outspoken against a bill to protect the border, seeing it as a marquee part of his campaign.
Joe Biden’s 2020 victory came during a year President Trump came under fire for various mishandlings of social issues such as the Covid pandemic and the Black Lives Matter movement in the wake of George Floyd’s killing. These helped to create the largest turnout percentage since 1900 even in spite of the global health emergency. CNBC noted: “52% of voters believed controlling the pandemic, even if it hurts the economy, was more important.”
Meanwhile, in 2008, 78% of voters according to the Pew Research Center saw healthcare as a very important issue and when President Obama passed the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), the 2012 election also centred on an electoral judgement of the flagship policy which would be the biggest legislative achievement of his tenure.
Presidential Character
At the end of the day, American voters are putting their faith in one man to become leader of the free world. This man should embody many of the factors the electorate look for in a leader.
In 1952, voters turned out in their biggest number in decades to elected President Eisenhower. Unproven politically, character was an important factor, with “Ike” celebrated as a war hero for his efforts as Supreme Commander during World War Two.
1992 saw Bill Clinton elected over the far more strait-laced George H. W. Bush, with Clinton characterised as having a “lethal charm” that helped him to the White House.
Candidates can too have negative perceptions that keep them from the presidency. Barry Goldwater’s 1964 nomination freaked out many voters, with some of those in his own party opposing him, such as Nelson Rockefeller, William Scranton, and George Romney.
Romney’s son Mitt, a perennial critic of Donald Trump, has described his party’s 2024 candidate as having a “failure of character”. He is not the only one as many other figures associated with Trump have refused to endorse him, most notably his Vice-President Mike Pence. Character could play a big part with criminal charges, his conviction of sexual assault, and January 6th big targets on the nominee.
Presidential Strength
The power of the president really matters, especially in regards to the public seeing their executive as imperial or imperiled. This is most obvious when presidents have a weakened position.
In 1980, Republican Ronald Reagan stormed to a decisive victory, aided no doubt by President Jimmy Carter’s weakened position over the Iran hostage crisis. His popularity dropped from over 50% at the start of the year to the low 30s and the affair “paralysed his presidency” in the words of the New York Times. The release of the hostages minutes after Reagan’s inauguration further highlighted the contrast between the two’s presidential authority.
Other issues can be over disputes with branches of government. Some of President Trump’s hallmark pledges went unfulfilled, in part due to coming into conflict with Congress. In 2019, a double-digit quantity of Republican Senators voted against emergency funding for his border wall whilst even a Republican majority could not manage to pass a bill to overhaul the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”). 1990 saw George Bush have to u-turn on his famous pledge “read my lips: no new taxes”, after a Congressional compromise, which eroded his support in 1992. More historically, Andrew Johnson constantly had vetoes overridden by Congress whilst John Tyler was disowned by his own party!
The Supreme Court too can hinder a president, most famously demonstrated during the Watergate affair. The unanimous 9-0 decision in United States v. Nixon (1974) that ruled the president had to hand over White House recordings harmed Nixon so much so that he became the only president to ever resign over the potential consequences. Pardoned by successor Ford, this harmed the Republicans in the 1976 election, with as many as two-thirds disapproving of Nixon at the end of his tenure and the decision causing a notable drop in support.
Abraham Lincoln in 1864, Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 (and later 1940 and 1944), and George Bush in 2004 can all be seen as examples of imperial presidents whose popularity aided them to electoral success in the form of re-election.
Presidential Age
Under Article II of the Constitution, the United States president must be aged at least 35 although there are no limits on a maximum age. That said, the age does matter to voters.
2024 is shaping up to be the ‘oldest’ presidential election of all time, breaking the 2020 record. Both aged over 75, whoever wins will become the oldest president of all time, a record both Trump and Biden have held at one point. Needless to say, many citizens are unenthusiastic about having senior citizens as the two major nominees. Such voter apathy may be felt on election day.
1996 shows us an example of a nominee seen as too old. The oldest first-time candidate, 73-year-old Bob Dole contested 50-year-old incumbent Bill Clinton. On the campaign trail, Dole fell off the stage, injuring himself in a visual summation of the difference between the OAP Dole and the president, the third youngest man to ever be elected to the position. David Letterman joked during the campaign that Dole participated in 1775’s Battle of Bunker Hill.
On the flip side, 1960 saw the youthful John F. Kennedy clinch the presidency. This image was further compounded by the famous 1960 presidential debate against Richard Nixon where Kennedy harnessed the new age of television, wearing make-up and a more stand-out suit. It was not that Nixon was old but that the young Kennedy seemed to be the man who would propel the United States into the next generation. His election made him the youngest president directly elected by American voters.
Third Parties
An outsider party can shake up a presidential race, perhaps impacting the results of an election.
The most famous example comes from 2000. In the critical state of Florida, George Bush beat Al Gore in a state where the Green Party performed well. Of the Greens’s Ralph Nader’s 100,000 voters, had just 538 votes instead gone to the similarly-progressive Democrats, Gore would have been gifted the presidency.
In 1912, former President Theodore Roosevelt ran as the Progressive Party (or Bull Moose Party) candidate, splitting the vote with Republican William Howard Taft. Roosevelt did so after disapproving of his presidential successor and ran after he won 10/12 of the Republican primaries but was overruled by party bigwigs. With Taft having the worst performance in Republican history and for a presidential incumbent, the Democrats got a rare presidential election win, with Woodrow Wilson claiming victory in a landslide result.
In 2024, Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign has raised concerns. His candidacy has been cited as harming both President Biden and former President Trump, with the independent polling at about 10%, the highest third-party performance since 1992’s Ross Perot, himself described as having cost Bush that year although that verdict is inconclusive.
GRIFFIN KAYE.