As the socialist activist Owen Jones noted in the Guardian in the build-up to the general election, the question of war in the Middle East remained aloof. “What,” he asks “is the justification for ignoring a mass slaughter in which Britain has direct complicity?”, adding: “our country’s role in grave mass violence should surely be up for serious discussion.”
Indeed, the Labour and the Conservative’s policies towards the conflict were nearly identical and both were similarly unfeeling towards the Palestinian cause. The hostility towards a ceasefire, the opposition to an arms sale ban, and a rather muted, vague pledge for a two-state solution naturally forced a wave of pro-Palestinianism that saw the sufferings in Gaza being ignored by those inhabiting the traditional two-party system.
The election proved to be a platform for pro-Gaza candidates to show the level of discontent, especially within Muslim communities. This is how 2024 saw pro-Palestinians topple Labour MPs, give several big names a close race, and – most importantly – be elected to be the voice of Palestinians in Parliament.
Background
On October 7th 2023, the Hamas terrorist organisation launched a deadly onslaught on Israel in which 1,200 civilians were killed and over one hundred were taken hostage.
This in turn led to Israel’s retaliatory destruction of the Gaza Strip, whose inordinate bombing campaign has caused an unprecedented humanitarian disaster. Nearly 50,000 people have been killed, over 50% of which are women, children, and the elderly while 90% of the population has been displaced.
In its crusade to smash Hamas, Israeli forces have committed various atrocities thought to violate international law, including bombing schools, refugee camps, and hospitals.
A few days after the initial ambush, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer gave a controversial interview to LBC where he remarked Israel “has the right” to cut off water, food, and power from those in Gaza.
In November, the Labour leader demanded that his MPs reject a Scottish National Party amendment to the King’s Speech, calling for a ceasefire. Starmer instead called for “humanitarian pauses” – a position differing from Labour bigwigs such as London Mayor Sadiq Khan, Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, and Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar, who had all called for an immediate ceasefire.
Early Warning Signs
In the months before election day, the Labour Party had some ominous warnings of how its stance on the war in Gaza would have repercussions.
One such sign was polling showing a collapse in Muslim support for Labour. The party had long served as the de facto home of the Muslim vote, with Jeremy Corbyn obtaining 86% of the Muslim vote in 2019. Yet a Muslim Census poll found that in light of Sir Keir Starmer’s resolute backing of Israel, this figure fell to a dire 5%.
February brought some of the first electoral consequences of Labour’s handling of the war when the famous anti-war socialist George Galloway won a parliamentary seat. The leader of the Workers Party won a by-election in the heavily-Muslim-populated Rochdale constituency on a largely single-issue pro-Palestinian platform. After his win, the ever-controversial Galloway directly addressed Starmer, stating “you will pay a high price, in enabling, encouraging and covering for, the catastrophe presently going on in occupied Palestine, in the Gaza Strip.”
The May local elections gave further hints. Beneath the many councils won by the party were displays of how Gaza had impacted the party. Labour lost control of Oldham council whilst Independents made gains and a similar situation occurred in Kirklees, where a number of Labour councilor’s rescinded their party affiliation – part of a larger number of councilor party resignations and defections across the country. In Manchester, Labour’s deputy leader was defeated by a Workers Party candidate. BBC analysis showed that in the councils with Muslim populations of over 20%, Labour’s vote share fell by 21%.
All of this is not to mention the many pro-Palestine marches that had occurred, which drew tens of thousands of activists to protest.
The Five Independents
The headline of the election results – and rightfully so – was the crushing victory of the Labour Party, who won with an historic 400+ seat landslide. Such a victory was clouded however by the victories of five independents (the most elected since 1945 when counted with the addition of a 6th independent in Northern Ireland) running on pro-Gaza planks, some of whom toppled high-profile incumbents in Labour strongholds.
Jeremy Corbyn (Islington North)
Barred from standing as a Labour Party candidate, former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn instead contested Islington North as an Independent. With grassroots backing and in spite of local campaigning by Corbyn’s former Deputy Leader Tom Watson and New Labour architect Lord Mandelson, Corbyn triumphed. He retained the seat he has held since 1983, in a remarkable result for one of Labour’s safest seats and one that had not elected a non-Labour candidate since 1931. His campaign, backed by The Muslim Vote, had a heavy focus on Gaza in its campaign literature, with Corbyn utilising not-so-subtle green and red iconography.
Shockat Adam (Leicester South)
Another notable result was in Leicester South, where pro-Gaza candidate Shockat Adam was able to galvanise the 30% Muslim population to overturn a Labour majority of over 22,500 votes and over two-thirds of the vote in 2019. The gravity of this win was underscored by who Adam unseated: Shadow Paymaster General Jonathan Ashworth, a man bound to have had a sizable Cabinet role if elected. In his victory speech, a Palestinian keffiyeh-wielding Adam proclaimed: “this is for Gaza”, in front of a visibly uncomfortable Ashworth.
Adnan Hussain (Blackburn)
In Blackburn, constituents elected the first non-Labour MP since the Second World War, voting in Adnan Hussain by just over 100 votes, overturning a 18,000 majority. This was in spite of a Workers Party candidate winning nearly a fifth of the vote. The Labour tally crashed to Earth, losing nearly two-thirds of their vote from 29,000 in 2019 to barely 10,000. The seat has previously been held by Labour Party heavyweights Barbara Castle and Jack Straw. Hussain remarked: “We are here on the back of a genocide and if that is giving us an opportunity then we must grasp it and use it for the betterment of our communities.”
Ayoub Khan (Birmingham Perry Barr)
The former Liberal Democrat councilor Ayoub Khan took the Birmingham Perry Barr seat, dethroning long-time MP Khalid Mahmood. Mahmood, who has been a Labour MP since 2001, saw his 2019 vote slashed by more than half.
Iqbal Mohamed (Dewsbury and Batley)
The new seat of Dewsbury and Batley was won by Iqbal Mohamed, who became the first independent to win in Yorkshire since 1907. Iqbal beat his Labour opponent, an ex-advisor to Chancellor Rachel Reeves, by nearly 7,000 votes. He won 41% of the vote to Labour’s 23%.
The Green Party in Bristol Central
The progressive Green Party, who too called for an immediate ceasefire, won four seats, a new record for the party. This can, in part, be attributed to the war in Gaza, with the Palestinian cause being the most pronounced in Bristol Central.
Here, the Shadow Secretary of state for Culture, Media, and Sport Thangam Debbonaire was defeated conclusively by Green Party co-leader Carla Denyer.
A key target for the Greens, who already were the biggest party on the city council, they campaigned on the Gaza issue, with leaflets displaying the Palestinian flag and the destruction in the region. As The i put it, the matter, especially here, had been “electorally challenging for Labour.”
Constituent, activist, and pollster Carol Vorderman predicted the Greens would get over 50% of the vote – a claim that proved to be true.
Indeed, despite campaigning efforts by Sadiq Khan, Ed Miliband, and Keir Starmer, Debbonaire fell to Denyer, who won 56.6% of the vote. The Green Party won on a 28% swing, handily overturning a mammoth 28,000 majority.
Thangam stated her loss was in part due to a “lack of a strong narrative” by Labour on Gaza, adding that her loss was “collateral damage.” Denyer added that for many constituents, Labour’s position on the conflict was “the final straw.”
Spoiler Candidates
In two other seats, pro-Gaza independents shaved off enough votes from the Labour Party to cost them the win.
In Chingford and Woodford Green, former Conservative Party leader Iain Duncan Smith held onto his seat despite the BBC giving him less than a 1% of retaining it. This was due to an independent bid by Faiza Shaheen, a disowned Labour Party candidate for making anti-Israel remarks, who came within 100 votes of the new official party representative. IDS only won with 35.6% of the vote whereas the collective majority vote share of Shaheen and Labour’s Shama Tatler was split down the middle.
Leicester East’s was another interest case. In this seat, the Labour Party candidate fell 4,426 votes short of winning in a constituency where the incumbent but expelled former Labour MP Claudia Webb ran a Workers Party-backed pro-Gaza ticket which won over 5,500 votes. This third party allowed Shivani Raja to win the seat in what was the only Conservative gain in the entire election.
Close Run-Ins
In the weeks prior to the election, Labour sent campaigners to key seats where the incumbent faced challenges in constituencies over 20% Muslim. This included challenges to the seats of Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood, and Jess Phillips, amongst others.
Leanne Mohamad (Ilford North): vs Wes Streeting
The most important government figure facing a pro-Gaza insurgence was Shadow Health Secretary Wes Streeting. A man who undoubtedly would become a major and crucial figure in government, he faced a struggle in his Ilford North seat against the 23-year-old British-Palestinian Leanne Mohamad. She ran after Streeting abstained on a ceasefire vote, noting: “People were angry, my community was angry because a genocide was taking place in front of their eyes, livestreamed and televised, and their local MP did not vote for a ceasefire.” In the end, Mohamad was narrowly defeated by just 523 votes.
Jody McIntyre (Birmingham Yardley): vs Jess Phillips
Another competitive challenge faced the prominent MP Jess Phillips. Despite being stripped of her frontbench position after defying the party whip to vote for a ceasefire, she still faced a backlash by pro-Palestine protestors. Her opponent, the Worker’s Party’s Jody McIntyre, noted Phillips’s membership of the Labour Friends of Israel as proof of Labour apathy to Gaza. Phillips’s vote share crashed but she was still able to hold onto her seat, even if by less than 700 votes.
Jody McIntyre (Birmingham Ladywood): vs Shabana Mahmood
In Birmingham Ladywood, Shadow Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood – herself a Muslim – was defending her safe seat that she had won with nearly 80% of the vote in 2019. However, the results seemed touch and go when she was faced with a Workers Party-backed Independent. Her 28,500-strong majority five years ago was slashed to just under 3,500 in an area where she had reportedly become too unpopular to actively campaign.
Other MPs who faced competitive challenges from pro-Gaza candidates include Rushanara Ali in Bethnal Green and Stepney (a seat whose precursor was won by George Galloway), Naz Shah in Bradford West who faced two independents whose vote total were greater than hers, and former Cabinet minister Liam Byrne who won by just over 1,500 votes and saw his vote tally drop by 25,000 and percentage shrunk two and a half fold.
Although not especially competitive, the prime minister felt this in his constituency too in Holborn and St Pancras. Keir Starmer’s vote fell from 36,641 to 18,884 with his vote share percentage falling from 64.5% to 48.9%. Placed in second was pro-Palestinian candidate Andrew Feinstein, who remarked that “Keir Starmer is the first British Prime Minister in electoral history to enter 10 Downing Street having seen his majority reduced.”
Across the election, the party dropped an average 23 points where at least 20% of the population identified as Muslim. In the West Midlands, pro-Gaza candidates won nearly 90,000 votes and nearly 70,000 in Birmingham.
A New Type of Campaign
The forms in which many of the pro-Gaza candidates campaigned was outside of the political norm.
This election perhaps saw the rise of the underground campaign. Candidates made use of social media platforms such as WhatsApp and Telegram.
In Shabana Mahmood’s Birmingham seat, her opponent was Akhmed Yakoob, who had rose to prominence with a large TikTok following. He had previously contested the West Midlands mayoral contest, using the slogan “Lend Gaza your vote”. His candidacy almost cost Labour the mayoralty, with Labour’s Richard Parker beating the Conservative incumbent Andy Street by just 1,508 votes in a contest where Yakoob won nearly 70,000 votes. Backed by George Galloway, he only narrowly lost to new Justice Secretary Shabana Mahmood in July.
More explicit campaigning did occur. According to those Labour MPs who faced pro-Gaza insurgents, the materials were of a violent rhetoric unseen before.
Jess Phillips was the most outspoken about the harrassment, sexism, and bullying that campaigners faced. Even heckled at her own count, she called it “the worst election I have ever stood in.” Mahmood called the disinformation in her campaign “an assault on democracy itself.” Moreover, the ousted MP Jonathan Ashworth noted how he was labelled “Genocide Jon” during the campaign.
Posters prominently displayed the word “genocide”, often accompanied by images with red, dripping letters reminiscent of the bloodshed in the ongoing conflict. One such poster depicted Wes Street gagged and shackled by his own party.
How Much Influence Can The Elected MPs Have?
There is a question of how much influence the Independents can have.
The unseated Ashworth referred to them as “impotent”, saying that the authority they wield will be minimal, or at least superficial. Additionally, future Conservative Party leader called their “sectarian, Islamist politics” as “alien ideas that have no place here.”
In September, the five MPs became a collective, in a move aimed at gaining more speaking time at debates. Although not a political party, this allegiance would nonetheless serve to increases the power of the MPs. The five members have a greater number of MPs than both the Green Party and Plaid Cymru and an equal number of parliamentarians to Reform UK.
Andrew Marr has claimed the group could have a strong influence in Parliament, especially if John McDonell – the former Shadow Chancellor who has been suspended by the Labour Party – were to join. His addition would be especially helpful in regards to increasing their media spotlight.
As of writing, Shockat Adam is trying to progress a bill that recognises the state of Palestine, which is likely to be debate in Parliament.
That said, Palestine is not the only cause championed by the group. They have voted with Labour on its more left-wing proposals such as rail nationalisation, the creation of GB Energy, and the Employment Rights bill. It has however protested against Labour’s more controversial policies such as retaining the two-child benefit cap and the removal of the guaranteed Winter fuel allowance.
Epilogue
There can be no doubt that Gaza cost the Labour Party certain seats, including strongholds in which the party has lost the trust of voters.
Perhaps it is part of a larger decline in the two-party hegemony we have seen at this election. Such an observation might seem ludicrous in an election where the Labour Party has won 400+ seats and the Conservatives are the only other party in the triple figures and with more seats than all minor parties combined.
However, not only have Reform won nearly 15% of the vote and cost the Conservative dozens of seats, but pro-Gaza parties have made great gains (with the exception of the SNP), even if it cannot be directly correlated to support for a ceasefire.
Both major parties who initially opposed a ceasefire totaled 57.4% of the vote, the lowest since 1910. The Labour Party even won less votes than in 2019, a factor that can partly be put down to the conflict in the Middle East.
The Liberal Democrats won 72 seats, the most of any third party in over a century. Other progressive parties performed well, with the Green Party doing their best ever result, quadrupling their numbers whilst Plaid Cymru won their most ever votes and highest vote share whilst helping wipe out the Tories in Wales.
Now, how much can be attributed to Gaza in this is questionable, but the rise of the Independent pro-Gazans nonetheless proved how voters would not be taken for granted and that, in politics, no voter base is certain.
Palestine proved a decisive factor for many Muslims and left-wingers, who increasingly saw a pro-establishment Labour Party not coming to the aid of the oppressed in their time of need. Splits have already emerged in the Labour Party over the issue, which will no doubt be exacerbated as the conflict draws on, seemingly no closer to conclusion but the torchbearers for peace in Palestine is now in the hands of those underdogs elected on grassroot platforms who were willing, and successful, in putting Gaza at the heart of their mandate.
GRIFFIN KAYE.