11 US states were members of the Confederacy during the American Civil War. Once reintegrated into the United States, these states became reliably Democrat, the party more supportive of conservatism, white interests, and segregation. However, in the century and a half since, the party switch, a major realignment of the major parties ideologies, has occurred. The following piece will examine how the 11 states vote in the 21st century.
SEE SIMILAR:
A Brief History of the Solid South
Southern Democrats: The Last of A Dying Breed?
The Majority: Ardent Republican Voters
Most Confederate states have strongly voted Republican in presidential elections, though it has taken longer for these states to consistently back Republican Senators.
For example, Alabama, South Carolina, and Mississippi, once Democratic strongholds, have not voted Democrat in a presidential election since 1976. Louisiana, Tennessee, and Arkansas have not voted Democratic since 1996, with the latter being the home state of President Bill Clinton. Of note, Tennessee did not vote blue in 2000 despite being the home state of Democratic candidate and former Senator Al Gore.
Both Tennessee and Mississippi have not elected a Democratic Senator in the 21st century, with the latter having not had a Democrat Senator since 1989.
A notable exception to this Republican dominance in the Senate was Doug Jones, a Democrat who won a 2017 special election in Alabama after Republican candidate Roy Moore was accused of sexual assault, including of a number of minors.
A more interesting study is the increasingly conservatism of the vote-heavy state of Florida over the past decade. Having backed Obama in 2012, the state backed Trump in 2016, who earned over 300,000 more votes. Defying the national trend, Trump increased his vote tally and percentage in 2020, improving by another 5% in 2024. In just three election cycles, Trump won Florida for the GOP and increased his vote count from 4.6 million to 6.1 million.
Additionally, the Governor’s office has only been held by Republicans in the 21st century. In 2018, Ron DeSantis emerged victorious by under 32,500 votes (0.4%). Despite a miserable Midterm cycle for Republicans, DeSantis was commandingly re-elected by nearly 20%, defeating former Governor Charlie Crist by 1.5 million votes, a remarkable showing that thrust DeSantis into the lead for the 2024 GOP presidential race.
Blue Targets for 2026?
Two red states look to be potentially fertile soil for Democrats in 2026, hoping to make traction in long-lost regions.
One is North Carolina.
The state has long voted Republican in presidential elections, with a few exceptions. Georgia native Jimmy Carter won there in 1976 and Barack Obama narrowly clinched the state in 2008, a feat not even achieved by Bill Clinton. Since 2008, the state has voted Republican but only by a margin of 1.3-3.6%. Even the 2004 ticket featuring incumbent Senator John Edwards could not topple the Republican stronghold.
In 2026, Democrats will vie for an open seat in the state left by departing Senator Thom Tillis, standing down after voting against President Trump’s flagship Big Beautiful Bill, leading to subsequent rebukes by the commander-in-chief. Tillis has since criticised several actions from Trump’s DOJ January 6th slush fund to several attempted appointments made by the president.
One area where Democrats have succeeded is gubernatorial races, with five of the six Governors in the 21st century being Democrats.
Democrats are hopeful they will win, with the ex-Governor Roy Cooper running for the seat. Cooper’s popularity in the state is such that he was reportedly considered as a potential running mate for Kamala Harris in 2024. Contemporary polling reveals Cooper holds a 10% lead over opponent Kevin Whatley.
Another state increasingly in play is Texas.
In the Republican primary, President Trump endorsed Ken Paxton over long-time Senator John Cornyn. The decision was criticised by many Senators not only because of the endorsement of the scandal-plagued ex-Attorney General but also for putting a red seat in serious jeopardy.
Since Trump has taken office, Democrats have swept to victory including with a Democratic mayoral victory in Pearland and a shock win in Texas’s deep-red 9th state Senate district.
Paxton’s scandals include his impeachment by the Republican-controlled state House for corruption charges, a protracted legal battle over mortgage fraud accusations, and a plea deal offered to a man charged with repeatedly sexually abusing an eight-year-old.
Paxton will have a hard campaign against James Talarico. A great communicator and a “fundraising juggernaut” according to the New York Times, Talarico has branded himself around an image of progressive Christianity. Talarico hopes to win the backing of Latin voters, who make up about 25% of the voting population, who had helped propel him to victory in the Democratic primary.
Current polling shows the seat as a dead heat, with Talarico winning according to some data.
Kind of Blue: The Case of Georgia
Since the end of the Civil War, Georgia had always voted Democrat – even backing historic losing candidates such as Horace Greeley, Al Smith, and Adlai Stevenson II.
That changed in 1964 when conservative Barry Goldwater captured the state, starting decades of Republican rule. Exceptions include 1976 when favourite son Jimmy Carter won over two-thirds of the vote, 1980, when Carter won his state but with a notably slashed percentage, and 1992 where Bill Clinton eked out a victory.
Despite the Republicans winning presidential elections, Democrats largely controlled the state at the local level. At the start of the 21st century, the state still had two Democratic Senators and had not elected a Republican Governor since 1872.
2020 was a breakthrough year for Democrats in the state, winning not just one but both Senate seats, the first time Democrats had flipped two Senate seats in a state in the same election cycle since 1958. In a special election, Raphael Warnock unseated Kelly Loeffler while a run-off that ran into 2021 saw Jon Ossoff defeat incumbent Republican David Perdue.
In the presidential election, Joe Biden made history by winning Georgia, the first non-southern to win a Deep South state (except Florida). A mammoth push from state Democrats to increase turnout, especially among black voters who overwhelmingly vote Democrats meant Biden performed well enough in the Atlanta metro area to beat Trump. The close margin of 12,000 votes led to an infamous push from the president to overturn the results, efforts rebuffed by state Republicans.
Although there has been a recent red pushback, with Republican Governor Brian Kemp notably improving his results in 2022 and Trump winning back the swing state in 2024, Democrats look poised to prevail in 2026, just as they did six years earlier. Jon Ossoff faces a competitive race but is consistently polling ahead in a race key to Democratic hopes at re-winning control of the Senate. Some even see Ossoff as a future presidential candidate.
Moreover, with popular Governor Brian Kemp’s tenure term-limited, Democrats have their eyes on the office.
Virginia: The Confederacy’s Bluest State?
As of writing, Virginia – the northernmost breakaway – is the only former Confederate state with two Democratic Senators, a Democratic Governor, and voted Democrat in the most recent presidential election.
As expected, Virginia was initially solidly Democrat, only once electing a Republican in presidential elections from 1876-1948. Yet it was earlier than most to ditch the Dems for the red, starting from 1952. Outside of the 1964 election, in which Lyndon B. Johnson won a landslide victory over Barry Goldwater, Virginia would not put its X in the box for Democrats again until 2008. Unlike many other states mentioned, Virginia did not back southern Democratic nominees Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton in any of their election campaigns.
Though it had long backed Republicans in presidential elections, it still regularly elected Democratic Governors and Senators during the 20th century, most notably the ever-present Byrd dynasty, with father and son Harry and Harry Byrd Jr. re-elected to the Senate on numerous occasions.
One of the reasons the state may have returned to the Democrats is linked to changing demographics, as noted in a great article by writers Sabrina Tavernise and Robert Gebeloff. They note: “Once the heart of the confederacy, Virginia is now the land of Indian grocery stores, Korean churches and Diwali festivals. The state population has boomed — up by 38 percent since 1990 … One in 10 people eligible to vote in the state were born outside the United States, up from one in 28 in 1990. It is also significantly less white. In 1990, the census tracts that make up Mr. Katkuri’s Senate district were home to about 35,000 people — 91 percent of them white. Today, its population of 225,000 is just 64 percent white … The influx of immigrants and their U.S.-born children, the spread of high-density suburbia and the growth of higher education all tilt the field toward the Democrats.”
At the Senate level, no Republican has won a race since 2002. In 2016, Virginia Governor-turned-Senator Tim Kaine was the party’s Vice Presidential nominee.
In 2025, the Democrats won the gubernatorial election there, with Abigail Spanberger defeating her Republican opponent to win back the office. The party won a trifecta, also flipping state seats on top of a decisive win, the largest for a Democrat in the state since 1961. The party has controlled the governorship for 16 of the last 24 years.
Notably, this 2025 blue wave also helped elect Jay Jones, the Democratic Attorney General nominee, who won despite highly-publicised texts which revealed his fantasies of shooting the former state House Speaker and the deaths of his children.
GRIFFIN KAYE.
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