What should have been a straightforward Labour win in a reasonably safe seat turned into one of the most intriguing sets of by-election circumstances in some time. How did this come about and who are the men standing to become Rochdale’s next MP?
Background
On January 17th 2024, it was announced Labour MP Sir Tony Lloyd had passed away, aged 73, having battled leukaemia.
Lloyd had been a Labour MP since 1983, bucking the trend that year by gaining a seat in what was otherwise a miserable election.
Notably, in 2006, he became the Chair of the Parliamentary Labour Party. Described as a Brownite, he was seen as a critic of Tony Blair – having voted against the invasion of Iraq, 90-day tension without trial for terrorist suspects, and the introduction of tuition fees.
A major figure in Manchester politics, he was voted Manchester Greater Police and Crime Commissioner in 2012.
In 2021, Lloyd became Sir Tony when he was given a knighthood in that year’s New Year’s Honours list.
Upon on his death, Labour Party bigwigs such as Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer, Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham, and former Prime Minister Gordon Brown attended his funeral.
In the by-election, Labour were heavily favoured. Since becoming the Rochdale MP in 2017, Lloyd won with majorities over 50%.
As a safe seat, even contradicting the Tories “Red Wall” victories in 2019, there was little doubt who would win a by-election for the seat.
Azhar Ali (Labour)
Labour candidate Azhar Ali seemed to have it in the bag until previous comments about Israel came to light.
A Palestinian supporter, he told a group of supporters last year that Israel had “allowed” the October 7th attack as justification to invade Gaza. This ambush would allow them the “green light to do whatever they bloody want.”
Even in the days after the comments, Labour still upheld their candidacy of Ali. The Times reported he was retained as Deputy Labour leader Angela Rayner had been a fan of him for a number of years.
However, eventually, Labour decided to withdraw support from Ali. Starmer has explained that under his rebrand of the party, they will accept “zero tolerance of antisemitism, of racism, of discrimination of any kind.”
His delay in removing Ali has been described as shambolic and has led to criticism of Starmer. With some seeing it as the biggest crisis facing the Labour leader yet, it has seen years of careful recrafting with the Jewish community hindered.
As it was past the date to change personnel, it meant that no official Labour candidate would stand in the Labour-voting seat. Leaflets posted would still be displaying Ali as the candidate even if he was no longer their man.
He still remains on the ballot.
He is not the only notable candidate to be removed by a party though.
Guy Otten (Green)
A brief mention should go to the Green Party’s Guy Otten, who was removed as the candidate days afetr being announced.
His suspension relates to comments made a decade ago about Israel and Gaza.
A retired solicitor and tribunal guy, Otten volentarily declared that he was deciding to “leave the stage” as “the Green message is too urgent and too important to be distracted some regrettable social media posts I made a number of years ago.”
He has not campaigned or taken part in media interviews since.
The Greens were unlikely to have had an impressive performance in their seat, losing their deposit in 2019.
George Galloway (Workers’ Party)
The most high-profile name contesting the by-election is the former MP George Galloway. He is standing for the socialist Workers’ Party of Great Britain.
Galloway will undoubtedly be a threat to Labour, splitting the progressive vote.
After all, Galloway has seen electoral success. In 2005, standing for the Respect Party in Bethnal Green and Bow, he was able to utilise the large Muslim population to unseat Labour loyalist and Iraq War supporter Oona King.
Notably, Rochdale has a population of about one-third Muslim. Galloway has before galvanised Muslim votes and these statistics are starker considering recent data shows about 5% of Muslims plan to vote Labour (down from 71% in 2019).
He also won the 2012 Bradford West by-election with over 50% of the vote in what he referred to as the “Bradford Spring.”
Elected in 1987, defeating incumbent Roy Jenkins, the Labour MP served in the party until his 2003 expulsion for “bringing the party into disrepute” over his opposition to the Iraq War.
He has since remained a thorn in the Labour Party’s side. He is a critic of Keir Starmer and as recently as 2021 stood in Batley and Spen, nearly costing Labour the seat.
Galloway’s controversial track record over the decades (including calling Bradford an “Israel-free zone” during his time as their MP), he may not be exactly a mainstream candidate but he is not one that should be underestimated, having made two parliamentary comebacks before.
Simon Danczuk (Reform UK)
A final noteworthy candidate in the all-male by-election is Simon Danczuk, the Rochdale MP from 2010-2017.
He was elected in 2010 as a member of the Labour Party, able to gain the seat for the party despite a widely-publicised incident shortly before where Labour premier Gordon Brown called a Rochdale resident “a bigoted woman.”
His most notable achievement in Parliament was his criminal complaint to police about Chris Huhne’s traffic ticket offences, which later lead to his imprisonment. He was also an ardent critic of new Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn.
The Labour whip was withdrawn from him in 2015 after allegations came to light about an explicit online conversation with a 17-year-old girl. This was after he had written a book about Cyril Smith, a previous Rochdale MP suspended for child abuse claims. He has since been accused of rape, which he has said was a concerted effort to “sabotage” his chances of winning.
He stood as an independent in 2017, winning just 1.8% of the vote.
He is now back with the right-wing populist Reform UK Party, who will hope to continue the momentum of strong performances in the recent Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections. They won over 10% of the vote in both.
He has dubbed himself “Old Labour”, much like how George Galloway positions himself, and has positioned himself as the only man able to stop the socialist Scotsman.
His local issues platform can best be read through a statement of his own: “Why would a Labour politician be more interested in the plight of the Palestinians than he is of [the] poor, white working class?”
Epilogue
Two sizable Labour by-election wins earlier in February were overshadowed by the controversy in Rochdale. In Wellingborough, Labour won for the first time since 2001 and overturned an 18,500-strong majority with a 28.5% swing – the second biggest for Labour in the post-war era.
When voters go to the polls on February 29th, no matter the result, they will be left without a Labour choice and without a Labour MP for the first time since 2010 (discounting Danczuk’s period without the whip).
Unless the Conservatives win – which would be their first MP since 1958 – they will further their record of suffering the most defeats for a sitting term of government since 1960.
Contrastingly, Starmer’s leadership has yielded the most by-election wins by a Labour leader, taking the record away from Hugh Gaitskell.
Whatever the outcome, it is one that will surely be watched extremely closely.
GRIFFIN KAYE.
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