Not too long ago on this site, we looked at the many similarities between Joe Biden and Jimmy Carter. The two presidents both were one-term moderates, won office during a serious economic downturn, and suffered badly due to Middle East crises in their last year in office. However, perhaps a better comparison for Joe Biden is – unexpected – Lyndon Johnson. Indeed, the duo’s parallels are almost unbelievable, as highlighted by the following shared characteristics, histories, and situations.
Both Elected to the Senate in Upset Wins With Thin Margins
Circumstances differ on their Senate victories but both only won by a negligable amount.
Johnson’s Senate race in November 1948 was won easily. Where things were competitive was the Democratic primary race. Johnson emerged victorious over former Governor Coke Stevenson by just 200 votes. As Texas was a Democratic stronghold, the primary was almost certainly the ‘real’ election as it would effectively reveal the state’s next Senator.
Similarly, in 1972, a dismal year for the Democrats at the presidential level, a 29-year-old Joe Biden unexpectedly won a Senate seat in Delaware. He emerged victorious by just 1.4%, or under 4,000 votes.
Both Ran For President After A Two-Term Republican
In 1960, Lyndon B. Johnson ran for President after Dwight D. Eisenhower while Joe Biden ran after the end of George W. Bush’s two terms in 2008.
Both Only Competed In One Primary Race
Lyndon B. Johnson entered the 1960 race late and only won his home state of Texas, serving as a favourite son candidate. Joe Biden only contested Iowa in 2008, withdrawing from the race after finishing fifth with under 1% of the vote.
Both Lose The Nomination To A Charismatic Young Northern Senator
In 1960, John F. Kennedy won the presidential race. He was popular due to his charm, was 43, and Senator for Massachusetts.
2008’s Democratic Primary was won by Barack Obama, who was noted for his strong and positive oratory, was 46, and Senator for Illinois.
Both Selected As Vice-President For Their Senatorial Experience…
Prior to being made VP, Lyndon B. Johnson had served for over a decade in the Senate, working his way up from party Whip to party Leader. From his work in building consensus across different parties and ideologies to passing the first civil rights legislation in eight decades, his time as Senate Majority Leader made him well-connected and widely-revered. As biographer Robert Caro notes in Master of the Senate, Johnson was “the greatest Senate Leader in America’s history.”
At the time of his running mate selection in 2008, Biden had been in the Senate for 35 years, winning seven races. In this capacity, he had chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Senate Judiciary Committee, having significant influence over national and international policy. By contrast, Obama had not even served a full term in the chamber.
… And Appeal To White, Conservative Voters
Biden undoubtedly aided Obama in the 2008 election, chosen partly due to his more conservative voting record. This includes a more pro-life stance on abortion, a stern law-and-order voting record, and a track record for supporting military interventions.
Biden’s appearance on the ticket can be partly credited with victories in crucial swing states such as Pennsylvania and Ohio, as well as states long out of reach for Democrats including Virginia and Indiana (which Democrats had not won since LBJ).
Johnson was selected by JFK due to his popularity in the South. Though the South had once been fertile soil for Democrats, in the previous two election cycles, Republicans had cut into this region. Most notably, Texas – and its lucrative 24 electoral votes – had voted increasingly Republican.
In 1960, Democrats, with Johnson on the ticket, swept the South. Due to systematic disenfranchisement across the south, this base consisted largely of white conservatives. As seen in more recent elections with Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton, southern voters are inclined to support favourite son candidates, in spite of representing the Democratic Party.
Both Vice Presidents To Historical Firsts
In 1960, JFK made history when America elected him as the nation’s first Catholic President. Previously, Catholic Al Smith had run for president in 1928 and had faced the wrath of the Ku Klux Klan and lost the once-solid support from southern ministers. In 1960, Roosevelt faced criticism from Protestant clergy from Dr Daniel Polling, editor of the Christian Herald who noted JFK would take marching orders from the Vatican. Elsewhere, Norman Peale, a Billy Graham-rivalling pastor noted as a writer and radio show host, declared that “faced with the election of a Catholic, our culture is at stake.”
Additionally, JFK was the only Catholic president until…Joe Biden.
In 2008, Obama became America’s first African-American President, 232 years after the founding of the US. In January 2008, a New York Times/CBS News poll found only 56% of white respondents and only 47% of black respondents believed the US was ready to elect a black president. This racism was clear in the election with the rise of ‘birther’ conspiracy theories that Obama was born in Kenya or was an Arab.
Both Did Not Want To Be Vice President
Prior to his choice as Kennedy’s running mate, Johnson had told Meet The Press that he was explicitly “not interested” in the role. He explained it would meaning needing to “trade in his vote for a gavel”, losing the lawmaking powers he was so adept at and merely certifying results.
Joe Biden had likewise told the press he had no craving for the role when he stood down after a distant fifth in the Iowa primary. He told Obama he believed he would be more powerful remaining in the Senate, where he could chair powerful committees where he could retain his influence. He reportedly told Barack, “I’m flattered … but I don’t want to be Vice President.”
Both Chose A Liberal Bleeding Heart To Be Their VP
When themselves nominated for president, both men chose popular progressives.
In 1964, Johnson chose Minnesota Senator Hubert Humphrey as his running mate. HH had a progressive track record, with the ex-Mayor of Minneapolis helping to craft a pro-civil rights plank at the 1948 Democratic National Convention. He would continue his liberal record, helping guide the Civil Rights Act 1964 through the Senate as a writer and Whip. He also had the backing of several notable labour unions such as the AFL-CIO.
Joe Biden chose Kamala Harris. Having promised to pick a woman, he chose Harris, who is of South Asian and Jamaican heritage. Harris was not only a liberal dream due to being a black woman but had also fought for same-sex marriage as California Attorney General, supported the Green New Deal in the Senate, and fought Biden during the 2020 primaries over previous conservative stances. Winning the election, VP Harris would hold the highest political office ever won by a woman in the United States.
Both Won With Remarkable Election Results
1964 proved to be one of the most colossal landslide elections in US history. In the contest, Johnson handily defeated Republican Barry Goldwater. His 15-million vote margin of victory over his opponent was the largest to date, easily overtaking Franklin D. Roosevelt’s 1936 triumph. He won over 400 electoral votes and over 40 states in a feat yet to be paralleled by any Democratic candidate. LBJ’s 61.1% of the vote remains the highest vote percentage ever won by any presidential candidate.
Though his 2020 win was not as sizable as his 2008 run with Obama, 2020 still provided Biden with an impressive election win. Firstly, his 51.3% of the vote was the strongest challenge to an incumbent president since 1932. Moreover, he became the first individual in history to top 80 million votes, with his 81.3 million tally blowing away Obama’s 69.5 million twelve years earlier. At the state level, Biden won Arizona for the first time since 1996 and Georgia for the first time since 1992.
Both Took Office In The Immediate Aftermath Of National Tragedies
One took office due to a national crisis, the other’s election win spawned one.
Lyndon B. Johnson was sworn into office in November 22nd 1963, assuming the office after President Kennedy was assassinated while being driven through Dallas. At the time, it was unclear if this was an inside job, foreign attack, or rogue citizen but either way, the beloved leader of the free world had been murdered, shocking the entire world. Responding, LBJ uttered: “I know the world shares the sorrow that Mrs. Kennedy and her family bear. I will do my best; that is all I can do. I ask for your help and God’s.”
Joe Biden took office just two weeks after protestors had stormed the Capitol building in a failed attempt to prevent the certification of Joe Biden’s electoral victory. January 6th would go on to become a day of infamous, regarded as one of the darkest days in American history. Republican Congresswoman Liz Cheney called Trump’s provoking actions “the worst breach of our Constitution by any president in our nation’s history” while Biden added it was “the most significant test of our democracy since the Civil War.”
Biden was also sworn in outdoors as it occurred during the height of the Covid pandemic.
Both Became Civil Rights Advocates (Despite ‘Racist’ Histories)
A strong argument could be made that LBJ was the greatest president for black rights in the post-Reconstruction era. He was able to do the impossible when passing the Civil Rights Act, later followed by the Voting Rights Act, entrenching the inalienable rights of African-Americans. Even in the face of rioting from black communities, he remained conscious of the actions in light of 300 years of oppression.
Despite supporting the 1957 Civil Rights Act, he was constantly refer to it as the “[n-word] bill”. He would make liberal use of the highly offensive term, even using it to describe esteemed African-American lawyer Thurgood Marshall when nominating him to the Supreme Court. As well as the n-word, he was noted for use of terms like “boy”, which he would often call his coloured driver.
Biden meanwhile, has long been haunted by claims of racist gaffes. From his earliest days, Biden was an ardent opponent of busing, in which children would be enrolled in schools of a different racial majority. As Biden put it, it would put his children into a “racial jungle.” In the following decades, he would support crime and policing bills criticised for hiking black imprisonment rates and galvanising racial inequality. Into the 21st century, he maintained close relationships and praisefully eulogised segregationsists Strom Thurmond and Robert Byrd.
In office, Biden’s most significant racial contribution was in helping Kamala Harris become the highest-ranking black female in US history. He also appointed over 100 minorities (60% of his appointments) including first black female Supreme Court justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, declared Juneteenth a federal holiday, and supported expanded voting rights in the unsuccessful John Lewis Act.
Both Attempt Re-Election But Forced To Step Aside
In January 1968, it looked as if LBJ might cruise to an easy renomination, while anti-war opponent Eugene McCarthy languished at about 10-15%. Johnson, whose popularity had been harmed by the long-running Vietnam War, was further injured by the Tet Offensive, a surprise surge by the Viet Cong forces that helped anti-war sentiment to balloon. In the first primary in New Hampshire, Johnson failed to win over 50% and beat McCarthy by just 7.7% of the vote. Due to his better organisation, McCarthy also won five times as many delegates. Seeing McCarthy’s success, long-time LBJ rival and popular anti-war Senator Robert Kennedy entered the race, prompting Johnson’s withdrawal two weeks later.
Biden’s withdrawal came far later in the day, after he had already emerged victorious in the Democratic primaries. Already on the other side of 80, questions as to his cognitive abilities were highlighted during a presidential debate in June. Facing pressure from high-profile Congressman to step down – including a behind-the-scenes effort by Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer – Biden announced his intention to stand down weeks later.
Both Had A 36% Approval Rating At Time of Withdrawal
When he stood down in March 1968, LBJ had an approval rating of just 36%, the same Biden had at his nadir just before stepping aside, according to Gallup polling in July 2024.
Both Were Replaced By Their Vice Presidents
LBJ was succeeded by Hubert Humphrey while Joe Biden was replaced by Kamala Harris.
Both Vice Presidents Won The Nomination Without Winning The Primaries
2024’s national convention saw Kamala Harris overwhelmingly nominated as the Democratic Party’s candidate. She had won no primaries as she had been thrust into the race only after Biden had pulled out, having himself already clinched the delegate threshold.
Hubert Humphrey came under far more criticism for not winning any primaries. The Democrats were split between the establishment and anti-war wings, with the VP winning through elite party machinery while the anti-war Eugene McCarthy won more delegates through primaries.
Outside the Chicago convention hall, 10,000 protestors assembled, who were drawn into conflict with the National Guard and 20,000 policemen. Tear gas, mace, barbed wire, and physical violence marred the event, with 650 people leaving arrested and over 1,000 injured. Dan Rather proclaimed: “there’s never been any convention anywhere near it in terms of the way it convulsed the country.”
Both Vice Presidents Lose Due To Unpopular Foreign Wars, Featuring American Support For Bombing Campaigns
The dichotomy of LBJ is his domestic success compared to his unpopularity due to the war in Vietnam. After assuming office, Johnson ramped up US actions in the area, increasing troops from 16,000 to over 500,000 by 1968. In 1965, the US started Operation Rolling Thunder, starting a sustained bombing campaign in Vietnam. The mass killings across the region lead to the party hemorrhaging support, especially young voters who chastised Johnson for the high number of deaths of young men sent to fight in Vietnam.
As Johnson himself acknowledged, with the election died his domestic programme, declaring: “That bitch of a war killed the lady I really loved: the Great Society.”
Similarly, Kamala Harris was not able to resist scorn from activists over the party’s continued support and funding for the state of Israel even in spite of the genocide in Gazan. After the attacks of October 7th, Israel had carpet bombed the region in attempt to wipe out Hamas, but instead ended up killing tens of thousands of civilians, largely women and children. The Uncommitted Movement made an impact during the primary and Muslim voters in swing states like Michigan bolted from the party, showing the influence of support for Israel in the election.
YouGov polling later found Israel support as the largest single contributor to driving away Biden 2020 voters.
Both Vice Presidents Lose To Opponents Promising To End Wars (But Actually Expanded Them)
Both Nixon and Trump came to office promising to end the unpopular war of their predecessors, though actually increased instability in the area.
In the case of the Vietnam War, Nixon had ran on a campaign stating he had a secret plan to end the war. Yet Nixon authorised new invasions and bombing campaigns dragging in several other nations in the region including Cambodia and Laos. Alongside Henry Kissinger, Nixon has been accused of only inflaming the Vietnam War, with Noam Chomsky accusing the US of acting with “genocidal intent.”
Since taking office, the US launched a new war on Iran, with the two sides trading both harsh words and drone strikes at each other for several months. A continuation of the Israel-Gaza War, stopping the Israeli excursion into Lebanon was a key point of disagreement in a US-Iran deal. So far from ending the war, the conflict has only devleoped further into the region.
Both Vice Presidents Lose To Opponents Making Historic Comebacks
Trump ran on a similar pro-peace ticket, railing against the US’s entanglement in ‘forever wars’. One such conflict was in the Middle East where Israel was unleashing an onslaught on the people of Gaza.
Kamala Harris’s 2024 loss meant Donald Trump would return to the White House, only the second man to ever do so. It was all the more remarkable after the 2022 Midterms, where Trump was initially languishing in the Republican presidential primary.
Humphrey meanwhile lost to Richard Nixon, former Vice President and failed 1960 nominee. His election in 1968 came six years after he had extraordinarily announced his retirement after his1962 California gubernatorial loss.
Both Figures In Political Winning Streaks
Since the 2024 election, many commentators have pointed out that no Democratic ticket has won in the 21st century without Joe Biden, only winning in 2008 and 2012 when he was in the VP slot and 2020 when he was the party nominee.
Similarly, no Democratic ticket won between 1952-1976 that did not feature LBJ, either as running mate like 1960 or president like 1964.
DIFFERENCES
It would be remiss of me not to also point out the many difference between two distinct presidents.
Strength of Legislation
Though LBJ was a very successful president in terms of domestic policy, it would be a stretch to say the same about President Biden.
LBJ’s legislative record, collectively known as the Great Society, included a huge set of socially liberal legislation that has been the cornerstone of the Democratic Party since. It included the Civil Rights Act, Voting Rights Act, the creation of medicaid, creation of medicare, and the creation of food stamps. Some of the most important policies of the 20th century, it reflects an incredible back catalogue signed into law by President Johnson.
Joe Biden had a harder time. He had struggles with the Supreme Court who overturned its landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade decision and struck down Biden’s student loan forgiveness directive. His flagship Build Back Better plan failed in the Senate and heavy cutbacks were needed to make the legislation pass. Elsewhere, the John Lewis Voting Rights Act, which attempted to strengthen voting rights and prohibit racial discrimination more comprehensively, was unable to break the Senate’s filibuster. Talking of which…
Congressional Composition
LBJ was undoubtedly aided in pushing through legislation by sizable majorities in the Senate and House. In the 1964 Congressional elections, Johnson managed to increase seats in both the Senate and House, earning a supermajority in both chambers.
In the 2020 elections, the Democrats won the Senate majority by only the VP’s vote as the chamber was divided 50-50. A holdout from conservative Democrat Joe Manchin was able to hold up and kill the BBB Plan, and the weaker Inflation Reduction Act only became legislation with the tie-breaking vote cast by VP Kamala Harris. Her vote was also needed to pass the American Rescue Act. Although the party survived the 2022 Midterms better than expected, few legislative achievements were made, with a bipartisan border bill pulled at the request of Donald Trump.
Face A Strong Primary Challenge
As mentioned before, LBJ dropped his 1968 re-election bid after a strong showing by Eugene Debs in the first primary in New Hampshire and the entry into the race by popular Senator and brother of JFK, Robert Kennedy.
This story is very opposite to Biden’s, who faced negligible opposition in the primary as he cruised to re-election with near universal party support. Biden’s biggest opponent was not a person but a movement – the Uncommitted delegation, a movement started by left-wing activists in protest at the party’s support for the actions unfolding in Gaza. Nonetheless, Biden won 87% of the popular vote across all primaries.
It was only after his disastrous debate performance that disquiet echoed through the party over its octogenarian candidate. Biden would step down, having already stormed to victory in the primaries.
Win Georgia In Presidential Elections
Georgia has become an increasingly key state to win in presidential elections, holding 16 electoral votes. The fact Democrats under LBJ could not win Georgia for the first time while Biden won it for the party for the first time in decades tells us a lot about party realignment.
Indeed, in 1964, Barry Goldwater’s anti-communist, anti-Civil Rights Act message helped resonate with southern voters. Despite a historic landslide loss, the Republican picked up several deep south states including Georgia. Georgia had reliably voted Democrat at every election, even sticking with the party through the Eisenhower era when some southern states voted for the former WW2 war hero.
In contrast, in 2020, Joe Biden won the state of Georgia. It was the first time a Democrat had won the state since 1992 and the first non-southernor to win Georgia since 1960. It came as part of a blue wave for the state, who also voted in two Democratic Senators, Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff.
In 1964, the fact LBJ could not win Georgia symbolised a realignment of southern interests away from Democrats for the first time in a generation. Though it seemed a permanent move, Biden’s ability to claw back the state – attributable to a dense black population in urban Atlanta – shows that some southern states can be won back by Democrats.
Cheating To Win Elections
Georgia was one of the states Biden opponents claimed were stolen, with Trump asking Georgian officials to overturn Biden’s 12,000-vote win. No evidence of a stolen election has come to light, with dozens of lawsuits across the country failing to unveil any validity for these claims.
One man who did cheat to win an election was LBJ.
In his 1948 Senate campaign, Johnson defeated former Governor Coke Stevenson in the primary by just 87 votes (0.0088%). Yet the means of victory included fraudulently doctoring voter rolls to indicate a Johnson victory.
Johnson conspired with local Democratic leader George Parr to add another 202 names to voter rolls to Box 13 in Alice. All names were in alphabetical order and all in a different ink and handwriting from legitimate voters, according to biographer Robert Dallek. Moreover, the last legitimate voter recounted that he was also last in line at the voting location.
Despite unease at the decision, Chairman Cavert certified the decision when the Democratic Party’s executive committee voted on the decision 29-28.
Many decades later and years after LBJ’s death, Texas election judge Luis Salas admitted that “Johnson did not win that election, it was stolen for him.”
Those 87 (fake votes) would change the course of American history, with Johnson winning only by the votes of “the dead, the halt, the missing and those who were unaware that an election was going on”, according to Robert Caro.
GRIFFIN KAYE.
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